The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics

There are three things that a challenger must do to come to power in autocracies. The first is to remove the current leader. There are three ways to remove the current leader. The first and easiest is that the leader dies. The second is that the challenger can convince the current leader’s essentials to defect. Finally, outside forces, such as a revolution or military defeat by a foreign power, can overwhelm the current political system.

Once the old leader is gone, the challenger needs to seize the treasury and other instruments of power as quickly as possible. There are often multiple challengers vying for power, especially in small-coalition systems. Challengers need to show the individuals backing their power grab that they can buy their loyalty. The only way for challengers to do this is to immediately seize control of the state’s cash flow. Bueno de Mesquita and Smith note that “waiting is risky business. There is no prize for coming in second” (24).

Finally, the challenger needs to form a coalition of supporters that will sustain him as the new leader. Simply put, the challenger needs to ensure they have enough money to buy the supporters’ loyalty. This makes it more difficult for someone to overthrow them.